The following is an analysis which I was required to submit for Dr. Ivey’s World Civ I class. I really enjoyed reading the article, which was fantastic, and writing the analysis.
The article is Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos by Niall Ferguson.
Here, you can access the Analysis PDF of the following of my response. It is easier to read, because I can’t get WP to work with my article correctly.
I do urge the reader to check out Thomas Course of the Empire , which is a remarkable rendition of the rise and fall of empires, in general and is the part of the “concept” in from which Dr. Ferguson writes.
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For some reason which I have never been able to figure out, I have always been concentrated by interest in history on the rise and fall of anything. I enjoy reading about the definitive result of his tory and the possible culmination of the future. This article is right down and up my alley.
The implicit suggestion that young America would be better served by sticking to it’s bucolic, or pastoral, principles is the truth which Ben Franklin sharply answered in conversation that the American people had “A republic if you can keep it.” (Cite: House.gov). “It is the ambition of a man which may tear him down; yet it is a man’s lack of ambition which assuredly tears that man down” – I’ve said that for years, as it has been the helter skelter of myself. Ambitious government (civilization) is dangerous, as it is potent. The question I have for Dr. Spengler is now that he’s been dead for 74 years, how would he rate his deduction that the 19th Century was the “Winter of the West”, and what does that really mean anyway. The Winter is the first season, so did he mean the 19th century was when the West would really get started good, for spring was near and summer was sure; did Spengler mean we were at the end of our rope? I may be proven wrong, but I believe if he thinks we were at the end of our rope in the 1800’s, then he is either very right and we are about over with or he is in error.
The assessment of Jared’s Collapse is right, in that as far as history is concerned all civilizations have seen their own collapse before their eyes, and I’ll add the Roman Empire as a sure exception to this rule.
While the author leaves off into a great paragraph with analysis of one of my favorite books, he then launches into foolishness by assessing the lack of support and willingness to accept a tax increase on the basis of climate change regulations and the false dichotomy of distribution of wealth from rich to poor nations. As if the the United Nations should tax the G8, and the G8 should turn to their respective citizens and tax the citizenry to support the likes of the Sudanese government, so they can buy bullets to impose their will, reign of terror, and blocking of physical food and aid in order to horde that food in government palaces to feed their corrupt officials and soldiers. Yeah, I’m all for that mess.
The author is the first “feel good liberal”, however, to propose the possibility of reducing entitlements, yet in the same breath he proposes raising taxes.
I believe the author may seriously be “on to something” in the idea of “proximate” causal reasoning on major events, such as WWI, 9/11, and our recent Financial Crisis of sub-prime mortgages. I’ve never bought into the idea that killing a freak in 1966 could be the killer of thousands in September 2001. The men on those airplanes more than likely never heard of Sayyid Qutb. That said, it probably was the episode which caused the sad demise of Anwar Sadat in 1981.
Pages 27 & 28 record and rehash the quick demise of the Western Roman Empire, China’s Ming Dynasty, and finally France’s quick demise to the Napoleon short people (making sure you’re reading), does he infer a quick demise for the United States?
His assumption of the Soviet collapse is “spot on” as it was internal demise, not invasion or civiil war which brought the system crashing faster than any civilization (if you want to call it civilization) in recorded history. Why can’t we (Russia & the U.S) get along, anyway? We have more in common than not in common.
With that thought in mind. Maybe I was wrong about Dr. Spengler. Maybe he was right. Maybe we (the United States) could collapse this very evening. We have the greatest plundering of our wealth in history. This president of these United States makes Pericles look like a pauper. This internal rot of spending is the same pressure with which Russia imposed it’s crushing death on itself, except it was funding the Military and we are funding everybody.
Works Cited:
Ferguson, Niall. Complexity and Collapse: Empires on the Edge of Chaos. March-April 2010. Web. 28 July 2010. http://www.foreignaffairs.com.
Paul, Ron. House.Gov: Speeches & Statements. 31 January 2000. Web. 28 July 2010. http://www.house.gov.